The Geopolitical Transformation of EU Enlargement Policy after 2022: The Peace and Security Dimension and the Case of Georgia

Abstract

Introduction: The new geopolitical environment that has emerged in Europe since 2022 has significantly altered the priorities and instruments of EU enlargement policy. Whereas enlargement was previously oriented mainly towards assessing candidate states' fulfilment of the Copenhagen criteria and the related reforms, the dimensions of peace, security, democratic resilience and geopolitical stability are now becoming increasingly prominent. This article examines whether these changes point to a transformation of enlargement policy from a mechanism of technical assessment and reform incentives into a broader geopolitical instrument. Methods: The study is based on a qualitative and comparative documentary  analysis of the European Commission's 2023-2025 enlargement packages. The theoretical framework is Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier's External Incentives Model (EIM). The analysis covers five areas: hybrid threats and democratic resilience, alignment with the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), cybersecurity, strategic communication and energy security. Georgia serves as an empirical case, from the granting of candidate status in 2023 up to and including 2025. Results: Security issues are integrated unevenly into the assessment of candidate countries. CFSP alignment has become a measurable indicator of geopolitical orientation, and hybrid threats are merging with the assessment of democratic resilience. Cybersecurity is evolving towards infrastructural resilience. Strategic communication and energy operate partly independently of conditionality. The strengthening of the geopolitical argument has not weakened conditionality: the 2025 Communication describes enlargement as "a key geopolitical tool" while maintaining that the process remains strict and merit-based. The 2025 Communication records serious democratic backsliding and a de facto halt to the accession process. Energy cooperation, meanwhile, continued. Conclusion: Since 2022, enlargement policy has not been replaced by security policy. Rather, its geopolitical and security dimension has been strengthened and integrated into the existing mechanism of conditionality. Geopoliticisation has increased the weight of intermediate rewards, particularly candidate status, but their effect still depends on the EIM variables, above all on domestic adoption costs.