From Neighbourhood to Enlargement: Armenia’s European Perspective in Historical and Legal Context

Abstract

Introduction: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine returned European Union enlargement to the centre of the political agenda and renewed debate on the European perspectives of states outside the existing accession framework. Armenia represents a distinctive case because its historical and institutional ties with Europe coexist with long-standing security and economic dependence on Russia and participation in Russian-led regional organisations. This study examines the evolution of EU–Armenia relations from the European Neighbourhood Policy toward closer political and legal rapprochement and assesses whether these developments place Armenia within the contemporary EU enlargement debate. Methods: The study applies a historical and legal analysis. It examines the historical development of Armenia’s European orientation and geopolitical dependence, together with the evolution of EU–Armenia relations. The analysis draws on the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), EU primary law, Armenian legislation, and relevant institutional and policy documents adopted by the European Union and Armenia up to August 2026. Particular attention is given to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, the Copenhagen criteria, Armenia’s participation in Russian-led organisations, and recent developments in political, security, and sectoral cooperation with the EU. Results: The analysis shows that EU–Armenia relations have changed substantially, particularly since the 2020 war and the subsequent weakening of Armenia’s traditional security architecture. CEPA implementation, European civilian missions, security and defence cooperation, the visa liberalisation dialogue, the 2025 Armenian law on launching the EU accession process, and the first Armenia–EU Summit in 2026 have significantly increased the political and legal relevance of Armenia’s European orientation. Nevertheless, Armenia has not submitted a formal application under Article 49 TEU, has not received candidate or potential candidate status, and has not been formally granted a European perspective within EU enlargement policy. Major constraints include the need to satisfy the Copenhagen criteria, increase alignment with EU foreign and security policy, address incompatibilities arising from membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and secure unanimous support from EU Member States. Conclusion: Armenia has moved beyond a conventional neighbourhood relationship with the European Union, but it remains outside the formal enlargement process. Current cooperation may create favourable political, institutional, and legal conditions for a future membership application, yet rapprochement should not be equated with accession. A transition from neighbourhood to enlargement would require a separate political decision by Armenia and the EU, substantial domestic reforms, resolution of conflicting external commitments, and sufficient willingness and capacity within the European Union to pursue further enlargement.